Germany Election: Far-Right AfD Eyes Historic Breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt

Germany is facing a closely watched political test as voters in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls on September 6, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) seeking what could become its biggest breakthrough yet.

The AfD has been polling at more than 40% for months, putting it well ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has been polling around the low 20s. A strong AfD result could potentially make it the first far-right party to lead a German state government since the end of World War II.

The election is therefore being watched far beyond Saxony-Anhalt. It could provide an important indication of how Germany's political landscape is changing ahead of the next federal election in 2029.

AfD Targets Historic State Power

The AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt is 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, who has campaigned on stricter immigration policies, nationalism and opposition to what the party describes as excessive influence from the political left.

The party has set its sights particularly high. Siegmund has spoken of targeting 45% or more, while recent polling has placed the party above 40%. If enough smaller parties fail to cross Germany's 5% electoral threshold, the AfD could potentially come close to — or even secure — an outright majority in the state parliament.

An outright majority would be particularly significant because it could allow the AfD to govern without needing coalition partners.

That would effectively bypass Germany's long-standing political “firewall”, under which mainstream parties have refused to cooperate with the AfD.

The CDU Faces a Major Test

The election is also an important test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU.

The CDU currently governs Saxony-Anhalt and has attempted to compete with the AfD on issues including migration and security. But polling has continued to show a substantial gap between the two parties.

Merz has warned that an AfD victory could have economic consequences, including the possibility of discouraging international investment in the state. He has also said that mainstream political forces should prevent the state from falling under the control of what he describes as radical parties.

Yet the CDU faces a complicated political problem.

Even if the AfD wins the largest share of the vote, it may not automatically be able to form a government.

Germany's Coalition Firewall Remains Crucial

Most mainstream German parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD.

That means the final outcome could depend heavily on how smaller parties perform.

Germany's electoral system requires parties to generally cross the 5% threshold to enter the state parliament. If the SPD, Greens or other smaller parties make it into the legislature, their presence could change the number of seats required for an outright AfD majority.

If the AfD falls short of a majority, the CDU could attempt to construct an alternative government.

One possibility being discussed is a complicated CDU-led minority government, potentially requiring support or tolerance from other parties.

That could create difficult negotiations after the vote.

Turnout Adds Another Dimension

Early participation figures have indicated unusually strong voter engagement.

By noon on election day, 34.72% of eligible voters had already cast ballots, compared with 22.4% at the same point during the 2021 state election, according to the state election commissioner. Around 1.7 million people were eligible to vote. Polls were scheduled to close at 6 p.m. local time, with initial results expected shortly afterwards.

High turnout could influence the final balance between the major parties and smaller groups competing to cross the parliamentary threshold.

Why Saxony-Anhalt Matters Beyond the State

The significance of the election extends beyond the state parliament.

The AfD has already become a major force in German federal politics. In the 2025 Bundestag election, it received 20.8% of the national second vote and won 152 seats, making it the second-largest parliamentary group behind the CDU/CSU bloc.

Its support has traditionally been particularly strong in eastern Germany, but recent elections have also demonstrated growing support in western states.

The party's performance in Saxony-Anhalt could therefore become an important indicator of whether its influence is continuing to expand.

Two further state elections in September — in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin — will provide additional tests of the AfD's momentum.

A Potential Turning Point for German Politics

An AfD victory would not automatically mean that the party could implement its entire political programme. State governments operate within Germany's federal constitutional system and must work alongside federal institutions and other states.

Nevertheless, controlling a state government would represent a major symbolic and political breakthrough for a party that has so far remained outside government at both the federal and state levels because of the cooperation firewall.

The AfD has already described the election as part of a longer-term campaign to achieve national political power.

For Germany's established parties, the result will therefore be about more than who wins Saxony-Anhalt.

It will be a test of whether the political barriers that have kept the far right outside government can continue to hold as the AfD's electoral support grows.

The final answer will come from voters — and the first results are expected after polls close.

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